Author ORCID Identifier
Blair P Bentley: 0000-0002-9606-6770
Lisa Komoroske: 0000-0003-0676-7053
V. Quennessen: 0000-0003-3626-5089
Camille Kynoch: 0000-0003-2730-0516
Vincent Saba: 0000-0002-2974-4826
J. Wilson White: 0000-0003-3242-2454
Mariana Fuentes: 0000-0002-2789-824X
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
8-7-2026
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is threatening global biodiversity, with sea turtles particularly vulnerable as offspring sex and developmental success are strongly influenced by incubation temperature. Behavioral plasticity, including the seasonal distribution of reproductive output, may provide short-term mechanisms for mitigating these impacts. Here, we investigated season-wide hatchling sex ratios and emergence success in a small population of green turtles (Chelonia mydas), tracking individual females across their nesting seasons. Sex ratios varied markedly through the nesting season, with later nests producing a greater proportion of male hatchlings. Moreover, sex ratios were relatively consistent among nests laid by individual females. Overall, females producing more nests over a season also produced more male offspring, suggesting that both nesting phenology and reproductive output influence individual contributions to future population demographics. Mechanistic models indicate that hatchling sex ratios have trended towards female-biased ratios (>80% female) over the past 50 years, and are projected to approach complete feminization by 2100 under continued warming. Although emergence success currently remains high (>85%), it is predicted to decline sharply after mid-century, with viable hatchling production falling to ∼30% by the end of the century. Models further show that maintaining contemporary sex ratios and emergence success will require unrealistically large delays in nesting phenology, and that even extreme shifts in phenology become ineffective by 2100. Together, these findings demonstrate that individual females can increase male hatchling production by nesting later and producing more nests, but behavioral plasticity alone is unlikely to offset the accelerating impacts of climate change on this population.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Rights
© The Authors 2026
Version
Author's Submitted Manuscript
Recommended Citation
Bentley, Blair P.; Komoroske, Lisa M.; Santos, Cintia M.; Santos, Armando J. B.; Argueta, Estefany; Quennessen, Vic; Coppenrath, Christina M.; Kynoch, Camille; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Claudio; Ventura, Rafaely N. M. S.; White, J. Wilson; and Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B., "Phenological Plasticity Provides Limited Resilience to Climate Warming in a Sea Turtle Species with Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination" (2026). Biological Sciences: Faculty Publications, Smith College, Northampton, MA.
https://scholarworks.smith.edu/bio_facpubs/345