Strategic Behavior and the Environment
We present a modeling approach for generating robust predictions about how changes in institutional, economic, and political considerations will influence the outcome of political negotiations over complex water-ecosystem policy debates. Evaluating the political viability of proposed policies is challenging for researchers in these complex natural and political environments; there is limited information with which to map policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. Our analysis evaluates the viability of policy options using a probabilistic political viability criterion that explicitly recognizes the existence of modeling uncertainty. The approach is used to conduct a detailed case study of the future of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Several other possible applications of the approach are briefly discussed.
Pareto optimality, Delta, California, political economy, deep uncertainty, robust decision making, modeling uncertainty
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Licensed to Smith College and distributed CC-BY under the Smith College Faculty Open Access Policy.
Goodhue, Rachael E.; Sayre, Susan Stratton; and Simon, Leo K., "Modeling Negotiations Over Water and Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty and Political Viability" (2016). Economics: Faculty Publications. 1.