Strategic Behavior and the Environment
We present a modeling approach for generating robust predictions about how changes in institutional, economic, and political considerations will influence the outcome of political negotiations over complex water-ecosystem policy debates. Evaluating the political viability of proposed policies is challenging for researchers in these complex natural and political environments; there is limited information with which to map policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. Our analysis evaluates the viability of policy options using a probabilistic political viability criterion that explicitly recognizes the existence of modeling uncertainty. The approach is used to conduct a detailed case study of the future of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Several other possible applications of the approach are briefly discussed.
Pareto optimality, Delta, California, political economy, deep uncertainty, robust decision making, modeling uncertainty
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Licensed to Smith College and distributed CC-BY under the Smith College Faculty Open Access Policy.
Goodhue, Rachael E.; Sayre, Susan Stratton; and Simon, Leo K., "Modeling Negotiations Over Water and Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty and Political Viability" (2016). Economics: Faculty Publications, Smith College, Northampton, MA.