Document Type

Article

Publication Date

12-15-2016

Publication Title

Strategic Behavior and the Environment

Abstract

We present a modeling approach for generating robust predictions about how changes in institutional, economic, and political considerations will influence the outcome of political negotiations over complex water-ecosystem policy debates. Evaluating the political viability of proposed policies is challenging for researchers in these complex natural and political environments; there is limited information with which to map policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. Our analysis evaluates the viability of policy options using a probabilistic political viability criterion that explicitly recognizes the existence of modeling uncertainty. The approach is used to conduct a detailed case study of the future of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Several other possible applications of the approach are briefly discussed.

Keywords

Pareto optimality, Delta, California, political economy, deep uncertainty, robust decision making, modeling uncertainty

Volume

6

Issue

1-2

First Page

73

Last Page

134

DOI

10.1561/102.00000067

ISSN

1944-012X

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Rights

Licensed to Smith College and distributed CC-BY under the Smith College Faculty Open Access Policy.

Included in

Economics Commons

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