Geophysical Research Letters
Elastic dislocation models of geodetic measurements
above subduction zones have led to the identification of
MW 6.0– 7.2 slow slip events (SSEs) that release elastic
strain over periods of days to months, but great (MW 8)
SSEs have remained unidentified. We extrapolate
observations of SSE duration and slip magnitude to show
that slip velocity decreases with event magnitude and
predict that the slip velocity of MW 8 SSEs is 50 mm/yr.
The slip velocity for great SSEs may never exceed the
plate convergence rate and thus never produce a reversal
in trench perpendicular motion. Instead, geodetically
constrained estimates of apparent partial elastic coupling
on subduction zone interfaces worldwide may be direct
observations of ongoing MW 8 silent earthquakes with
durations of decades to centuries.
- “An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2009) American Geophysical Union.” http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL036364/full
Meade, Brendan J. and Loveless, John P., "Predicting the Geodetic Signature of MW 8 Slow Slip Events" (2009). Geosciences: Faculty Publications, Smith College, Northampton, MA.