Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization

Authors

Seth D. Baum, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Stuart Armstrong, University of Oxford
Timoteus Ekenstedt, Umeå University
Olle Häggström, Chalmers University of Technology
Robin Hanson, George Mason University
Karin Kuhlemann, University College London
Matthijs M. Maas, University of Copenhagen
James D. Miller, Smith CollegeFollow
Markus Salmela, Independent researcher, Sweden
Anders Sandberg, University of Oxford
Kaj Sotala, Foundational Research Institute
Phil Torres, Independent researcher, Canada
Alexey Turchin, Science for Life Extension Foundation
Roman V. Yampolskiy, University of Louisville

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2019

Publication Title

Foresight

Abstract

Purpose: This paper formalizes long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist.

Approach: We focus on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos.

Findings: Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation, and astronomical trajectories appear possible.

Value: Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.

Keywords

long-term trajectories, human civilization

Volume

21

Issue

1

First Page

53

Last Page

83

DOI

10.1108/FS-04-2018-0037

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Rights

Licensed to Smith College and distributed CC-BY under the Smith College Faculty Open Access Policy.

Comments

Peer reviewed accepted manuscript.

Recommended Citation

Baum, Seth D.; Armstrong, Stuart; Ekenstedt, Timoteus; Häggström, Olle; Hanson, Robin; Kuhlemann, Karin; Maas, Matthijs M.; Miller, James D.; Salmela, Markus; Sandberg, Anders; Sotala, Kaj; Torres, Phil; Turchin, Alexey; and Yampolskiy, Roman V., "Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization" (2019). Economics: Faculty Publications, Smith College, Northampton, MA.
https://scholarworks.smith.edu/eco_facpubs/27