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Publication Date

2025-5

First Advisor

Paulette Peckol

Second Advisor

Lisa McManus

Third Advisor

Noam Vogt-Vincent

Document Type

Honors Project

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Environmental Science and Policy

Keywords

marine protected area, coral reef, connectivity, evolutionary adaptation, climate change, Southwest Indian Ocean

Abstract

Coral reefs are individual ecosystems, but they are also connected to one another across distance by the dispersal of their larvae, which forms networks that promote genetic exchange. This connectivity is especially important for understanding the resilience of coral ecosystems under climate change. However, there has been limited research on how these connectivity networks are changing over time due to ocean warming. Despite its critical role in both persistence and recovery of coral populations, connectivity has not been widely incorporated into the design and implementation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). In this study, I focus on the Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) to assess the ability of reefs in this region to maintain genetic diversity, adapt to rising ocean temperatures, and understand how reef connectivity will be affected by climate change. Using a potential connectivity matrix and an eco-evolutionary model, I find that: (1) incoming genetic diversity of coral larvae is strongly influenced by shifts in thermal optima across reefs and is projected to increase over the next 75 years; (2) the ability of coral populations to adapt and maintain thermal diversity is highly dependent on regional environmental pressures; and (3) regional connectivity strength is declining due to the negative effects of ocean warming on pelagic larval duration. These findings offer actionable recommendations for integrating connectivity into the design and placement of MPAs in the SWIO. Conservation efforts account for connectivity processes to protect populations with the greatest potential for thermal adaptation, while also safeguarding the most vulnerable to fragmentation and isolation. Furthermore, the MPA network in the SWIO should be strategically designed to support both genetic and demographic connectivity.

Rights

©2025 Seychelle Brainard. Access limited to the Smith College community and other researchers while on campus. Smith College community members also may access from off-campus using a Smith College log-in. Other off-campus researchers may request a copy through Interlibrary Loan for personal use.

Language

English

Comments

61 pages: color illustrations, maps, charts. Includes bibliographical references (pages 57-61)

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